Budgeting for climate change: obstacles and opportunities at the US state level     

Elisabeth A. Gilmore  Travis St.Clair 《Climate Policy》2018,18(6):729-741

State governments in the United States are well placed to identify opportunities for mitigation and the needs for adaptation to climate change. However, the cost of these efforts can have important implications for budgets that already face pressures from diverse areas such as unfunded pensions and growing health care costs. In this work, the current level of spending on climate-related activities at the state level are evaluated and policy recommendations are developed to improve financial management practices as they relate to climate risk. An examination of state budgets reveals that climate mitigation and adaptation activities represent less than 1% of spending in most states. The data collection highlights the obstacles to collecting accurate spending data and the lack of budgetary and accounting procedures in place. More importantly, the difficulty in benchmarking these activities poses challenges for the analysis of state-level policies as well as planning and modelling future climate-related spending. Other policy contexts, including public pensions and infrastructure, can provide guidance on budgetary and accounting tools that may help states prepare for and more efficiently manage climate-related expenditures.

Key policy insights

• Climate change mitigation and adaptation will require substantial investments across many levels of government on a wide range of activities.

• Currently, US states are not clearly demarcating climate expenditures, hindering the identification of climate-related budgetary risks.

• In the absence of guidelines, these longer term fiscal outlays may remain chronically underfunded in favour of more near-term spending priorities.

• Establishing appropriate financial management and data collection practices is important for more sophisticated cost-effectiveness and policy analyses.

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Going to extremes: propositions on the social response to severe climate change     

William R. Travis 《Climatic change》2010,98(1-2):1-19

The growing literature on potentially-dangerous climate change is examined and research on human response to natural hazards is analyzed to develop propositions on social response pathways likely to emerge in the face of increasingly severe climate change. A typology of climate change severity is proposed and the potential for mal-adaptive responses examined. Elements of a warning system for severe climate change are briefly considered.  相似文献   

Some Biases in Sampling Multilevel Piezometers for Volatile Organics     

J. F. Barker  G. C Patrick  L. Lemon  G. M. Travis 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》1987,7(2):48-54

Multilevel piezometers are cost-effective monitoring devices for determining the three-dimensional distribution of solutes in ground water. Construction includes flexible tubing (plastic or Teflon®). Their sampling is subject to a number of'potential biases, particularly: (1) losses of volatile organic solutes via volatilization, (2) sorption onto the flexible tubing of the piezometers, (3) leaching of organics from this tubing, and (4) collection of unrepresentative samples due to inadequate piezometer flushing. It is shown that these biases are minimal or are easily controlled in most situations.
Another source of bias has been recognized. Organic solutes present in ground water above the screened level can penetrate the flexible plastic or Teflon tubing and contaminate the sampled water being drawn through this tubing. Laboratory tests and field results indicate this transmission causes low organic contaminant concentrations to be erroneously attributed to ground water which is free of such contaminants. The transmitted organics apparently desorb from the plastic tubing during flushing of even 40 piezometer volumes.
Recognition of this transmission problem provides for a better interpretation of existing organic contaminant distribution data. Caution is advised when considering the use of these monitoring devices in organic solute contaminant studies.  相似文献   

Mantle circulation models with variational data assimilation: inferring past mantle flow and structure from plate motion histories and seismic tomography   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hans-Peter Bunge  C. R. Hagelberg  B. J. Travis 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,152(2):280-301

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Évolution de l'onde semi-diurne M2 de la marée à Brest de 1846 à 2005     

Nicolas Pouvreau  Belén Martin Miguez  Bernard Simon  Guy Wöppelmann 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(11):802-808

The work of searching, recovering and quality control of ancient sea-level measurements at Brest is presented. This work enables us to complete a study carried out by Cartwright in 1972, which showed a decrease in the tidal M2 semi-diurnal amplitude of 1% per century. After including these ancient data, as well as the last four decades of observations in the analysis, our results show an increase of the amplitude of M2 after 1960 and a decrease before 1880, suggesting a long-period oscillation rather than a steady secular trend. To cite this article: N. Pouvreau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

Aviation-Contrail Impacts on Climate and Climate Change: A Ready-to-Wear Research Mantle for Geographers     

Andrew M. Carleton  David J. Travis 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):421-432

Although geographers are highly visible in research into contemporary climate changes accompanying greenhouse gas increases (“global warming”), a relatively little explored component by them is the impact of aviation. This contrasts with the atmospheric science community of cloud physicists, chemists, and numerical modelers, who use geographic tools of trade. Geographers are well positioned to investigate aviation-climate impacts, especially related to contrail clouds, given geographic traditions of environment, spatial variation, regionalization, generalization, and the integrative approach to studying physical and human systems (here, climate, transportation, and energy). We highlight the role played by geographers in contrail-climate studies and advocate for a broader involvement in aviation policy formulation.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of the regional climate model RegCM4.2 to planetary boundary layer parameterisation     

Ivan Güttler  Čedo Branković  Travis A. O’Brien  Erika Coppola  Branko Grisogono  Filippo Giorgi 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):1753-1772

This study investigates the performance of two planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisations in the regional climate model RegCM4.2 with specific focus on the recently implemented prognostic turbulent kinetic energy parameterisation scheme: the University of Washington (UW) scheme. When compared with the default Holtslag scheme, the UW scheme, in the 10-year experiments over the European domain, shows a substantial cooling. It reduces winter warm bias over the north-eastern Europe by 2 °C and reduces summer warm bias over central Europe by 3 °C. A part of the detected cooling is ascribed to a general reduction in lower tropospheric eddy heat diffusivity with the UW scheme. While differences in temperature tendency due to PBL schemes are mostly localized to the lower troposphere, the schemes show a much higher diversity in how vertical turbulent mixing of the water vapour mixing ratio is governed. Differences in the water vapour mixing ratio tendency due to the PBL scheme are present almost throughout the troposphere. However, they alone cannot explain the overall water vapour mixing ratio profiles, suggesting strong interaction between the PBL and other model parameterisations. An additional 18-member ensemble with the UW scheme is made, where two formulations of the master turbulent length scale in unstable conditions are tested and unconstrained parameters associated with (a) the evaporative enhancement of the cloud-top entrainment and (b) the formulation of the master turbulent length scale in stable conditions are systematically perturbed. These experiments suggest that the master turbulent length scale in the UW scheme could be further refined in the current implementation in the RegCM model. It was also found that the UW scheme is less sensitive to the variations of the other two selected unconstrained parameters, supporting the choice of these parameters in the default formulation of the UW scheme.  相似文献   

Bovid mortality profiles in paleoecological context falsify hypotheses of endurance running–hunting and passive scavenging by early Pleistocene hominins     

Henry T. Bunn  Travis Rayne Pickering   《Quaternary Research》2010,74(3):395-404

The world’s first archaeological traces from 2.6 million years ago (Ma) at Gona, in Ethiopia, include sharp-edged cutting tools and cut-marked animal bones, which indicate consumption of skeletal muscle by early hominin butchers. From that point, evidence of hominin meat-eating becomes increasingly more common throughout the Pleistocene archaeological record. Thus, the substantive debate about hominin meat-eating now centers on mode(s) of carcass resource acquisition. Two prominent hypotheses suggest, alternatively, (1) that early Homo hunted ungulate prey by running them to physiological failure and then dispatching them, or (2) that early Homo was relegated to passively scavenging carcass residues abandoned by carnivore predators. Various paleontologically testable predictions can be formulated for both hypotheses. Here we test four predictions concerning age-frequency distributions for bovids that contributed carcass remains to the 1.8 Ma. old FLK 22 Zinjanthropus (FLK Zinj, Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania) fauna, which zooarchaeological and taphonomic data indicate was formed predominantly by early Homo. In all but one case, the bovid mortality data from FLK Zinj violate test predictions of the endurance running-hunting and passive scavenging hypotheses. When combined with other taphonomic data, these results falsify both hypotheses, and lead to the hypothesis that early Homo operated successfully as an ambush predator.  相似文献   

Methodological recommendations for ungulate mortality analyses in paleoanthropology     

Henry T. Bunn  Travis Rayne Pickering 《Quaternary Research》2010,74(3):388-394

Age profiling of fossil faunal samples relies on the correlation of animal tooth-wear patterns with life history stages, but the criteria used to infer these stages are not necessarily valid. Here we redefine some commonly used prey age classes, such as “juvenile,” “prime-age adult,” and “old adult,” based on the variable characteristics of tooth wear that we have observed in different ungulate size classes, and argue that prey vulnerability to predation is not so clearly predicted by the simplified age classes in widespread use by zooarchaeologists. We recommend instead classifying the youngest animal remains as either young juvenile or subadult juvenile, and adult remains as early prime, late prime or old, and provide specific criteria of dental eruption and occlusal wear for making these determinations. We argue this refined age profiling system, when used in combination with other types of zooarchaeological and taphonomic data, can provide accurate inferences of faunal accumulation processes.  相似文献   

Coupling thermodynamic modeling and high-resolution in situ LA-ICP-MS monazite geochronology: evidence for Barrovian metamorphism late in the Grenvillian history of southeastern Ontario     

Travis McCarron  Fred Gaidies  Christopher R. M. McFarlane  R. Michael Easton  Peter Jones 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,108(6):741-758

The Flinton Group is a greenschist to upper amphibolite facies package of metasediments in southeastern Ontario that was metamorphosed during the Ottawan Orogeny. Thermodynamic modeling of metapelitic mineral assemblages suggests an increase in peak conditions of metamorphism across the 40 km wide study area from 3.5 to 7.9 kbar and 540 to 715 °C. Garnet isopleth thermobarometry applied to the cores of compositionally zoned porphyroblasts reveals remarkably similar P-T conditions of initial crystallization at approximately 3.7–4.0 kbar and 512–520 °C, corresponding to a relatively high geothermal gradient of ca. 34–45 °C km^?1. It is inferred from modeling and reaction textures that metamorphism was along Barrovian P-T paths. Major and trace element zoning in garnet from one sample records a complex growth history as evidenced by major and trace element zoning and the distribution of xenotime, allanite and monazite inclusions. High-resolution (6 μm) LA-ICP-MS U-Pb geochronology performed on monazite in the rock matrix and included in the outer 150 μm of garnet rim-ward of a Y annulus revealed an age of 976?±?4 Ma. The age is interpreted to reflect monazite growth at the expense of allanite and apatite late in garnet’s growth history over the P-T interval 4.5–6.8 kbar and 540–640 °C. This new age estimate for near peak metamorphism fits well into the regional framework but is significantly younger than previously reported ages for Ottawan metamorphism. Based on microstructures this new age suggests that compressional tectonics were operating much later in the history of the Grenville of southeastern Ontario than previously thought.  相似文献